As the avid reader might have read in my monthly FI updates. I write that I will reach my first big milestone of a 7 % withdrawal rate in about 3 years.
I calculate this very simple.
- I divide my yearly spending 110.000 DKK (17.000 $) with 0,07
- I look how big my portfolio is now.
- I subtract step one with step two. 1.600.000 – current portfolio.
- I divide the result from step three with the average amount I save in a year.
And that is how I end up with 3 years. Give or take.
I don’t calculate with any return on the investment. Just to make it more simple.
How would things look if the 2008 stock market started tomorrow?
Or what about if it happen the day that I would quite a fulltime job?
The picture below is how my portfolio would look like if I keep save and invest 24.000 DKK/month (4.000 $).
16.000 DKK of those money would be my own, and 8.000 DKK of them would be borrowed/leveraged.
From 1/1/2008 to 31/12/2010 I would end up with a 1.530.000 DKK (236.000 $) and with an annual return on investment of -3 %.
Even with a -40 % in 2008 I would have reached my first milestone of 7 % SWR on my annual spending.
What would happen if three years from now, where I’m likely to hit that milestone and the crash happens then?
In this scenario where we have the 2008 crash right where I’m “supposed” to hit my first milestone. The portfolio will crash. Just before I hit those 1.600.000 DKK the portfolio is going to tank. But as you can see. Even with 40 % reduction in my portfolio, I’m going to hit that number if I keep investing, and work for another 8-9 months or so.
And that isn’t too bad.
I mean. The 2008 crash was one of the worst we have seen in this century. Not that I’m saying it won’t happen again. What I’m saying here is that even with one of worst scenarios, we are only postponing our milestone with a couple of months.
It is going to be a bumpy right. But sit back and relax. It is just a matter of a couple of months. Or maybe a year or two. (If shit really hits the fan)